The Investor Notebook

23 Oct 2024

FY24 Reporting Season Observation

– On the heels of a stronger than expected US June quarter results season, companies listed on the ASX posted results ahead of, or at least in line with, market expectations. 

– Despite an environment of rising input costs, industrial companies achieved impressive cost management and generally produced improved operating margins. Resource companies however grappled with greater cost imposts and volatile commodity prices. Many lifted capex intentions, compounding investor angst. 

– Seasonally, August normally sees prospective earnings estimates wound back and FY25e would prove to be no exception. This time that adjustment was heavier among small companies (EGG av. industrial co -4.6% FY25e) and more moderate with mid-caps (EGG av. industrial co -2.2% FY25e). Up-graders were well rewarded by the market whilst down-graders were reproved. 

– Several structural growth stocks found favour among investors and extended rallies. TPW, NWL, HUB, BRG, SUL, LNW and BRG stood out to us. 

– The major banks delivered impressive results/trading updates taking their stock prices to 52 week highs in the process or historic highs in the case of CBA. 

– Heightened share price volatility meant survivorship-bias was on display among fund managers towards season close. Managers garroted by 3-4 disappointing results (and harrowing share price reactions) have been known to jettison the next risky reporting candidate and perhaps this might explain some of the more dramatic stock moves.

Ben Griffiths​

Executive Chairman

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